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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Conundrum for Former Brooklyn Dodgers Fans

MrKen highly recommends the HBO documentary--"The Brooklyn Dodgers: The Ghosts of Flatbush".

A conundrum posed by a former Dodger player was this--

'A Dodger fan is locked in a room with Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin, & Walter O'Malley (Dodger owner who moved the team to its new digs in Los Angeles in 1958). The fan has a revolver containing only two bullets; who does he shoot?'

Answer: 'He shoots Walter O'Malley twice!'

Some fans of "dose bums" have never forgiven O'malley--even though the real villain was Robert Moses; despite repeated entreaties, he refused to approve a parcel of land available in Brooklyn which was ideal (it was at the terminus of a LIRR line). Instead, Moses wanted O'Malley to build the stadium in Queens--the later site of Shea Stadium. So O'Malley accepted a much superior offer from LA.

MrKen hails from Philly, so was psychologically unaffected by the dispute. I hated the Dodgers, Giants (and Yankees) no matter what city they called home. Incidentally, Phillies' centerfielder Richie Ashburn's famous throw-which nailed a Dodger pinchrunner at home plate in the last game of the 1950 season- is shown on the HBO special as yet another example of Dodger futility. Had the run scored, the Dodgers would have forced a playoff with the rapidly fading "Whiz Kids". But the Phils went on to win the game in the 10th inning, securing the NL pennant. And then lost the World Series to the Yankees in 4 straight...

Brooklyn's high-flying Dodgers are the focus of this documentary that examines the heyday and impact of one of baseball's most recognizable teams from 1947 to 1957. From the watershed moment in which Jackie Robinson became the first African American to play in the major leagues, the team set a new standard for integration and became a symbol for a cohesive American culture. But just ten years later, the Dodgers left Ebbets Field behind and relocated to the West Coast, shocking a borough and forever changing the professional sports landscape. This film explores that history-making period--including the team's epic battles against their archrival Yankees--and features interviews with Rachel Robinson, Duke Snider, Carl Erskine, Clem Labine, Johnny Podres, Peter O'Malley, Larry King, Pat Cooper, Louis Gossett Jr. and many others. Produced in association with Major League Baseball Productions. Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of Major League Baseball Productions, Inc. Widescreen. (TVPG) (AL)


Description Curtesy of HBO's Sports Website:
http://www.hbo.com/apps/schedule/ScheduleServlet?ACTION_DETAIL=DETAIL&FOCUS_ID=631912

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Friday, June 12, 2009

God Looks After...


"There is a Providence that protects idiots, drunkards, children, and the United States of America".--


---Otto von Bismarck, 19th Century Prussian Leader & First Chancellor of Germany (1871-1890)

Curtesy of Wikiquote.org Link: http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Otto_von_Bismarck



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Thursday, March 19, 2009

Global Crisis to Strike by 2030 says UK Scientist


Global crisis 'to strike by 2030'

By Christine McGourty
BBC Science Correspondent


(Opposite top right)--
Water shortages are predicted
across large parts of Africa,
Europe and Asia

Growing world population will cause a "perfect storm" of food, energy and water shortages by 2030, the UK government chief scientist is warning.

By 2030 the demand for resources will create a crisis with dire consequences, Prof John Beddington predicts.

Demand for food and energy will jump 50% by 2030 and for fresh water by 30%, as the population tops 8.3 billion, he is due to tell a conference in London.

Climate change will exacerbate matters in unpredictable ways, he will add.

'Complacent'

"It's a perfect storm," Prof Beddington will tell the Sustainable Development UK 09 conference.

"There's not going to be a complete collapse, but things will start getting really worrying if we don't tackle these problems."

We need more disease-resistant and pest-resistant plants and better practices, better harvesting procedures,” asserted
Professor Beddington.

Prof Beddington says the looming crisis will match the current one in the banking sector.

"My main concern is what will happen internationally, there will be food and water shortages," he predicts.

"We're relatively fortunate in the UK; there may not be shortages here, but we can expect prices of food and energy to rise."

The United Nations Environment Programme predicts widespread water shortages across Africa, Europe and Asia by 2025.

The amount of fresh water available per head of the population is expected to decline sharply in that time.

The issue of food and energy security rose high on the political agenda last year during a spike in oil and commodity prices.

Genetically-modified

Prof Beddington says the concern now - when prices have dropped once again - is that the issues will slip down the domestic and international agenda again.

"We can't afford to be complacent. Just because the high prices have dropped doesn't mean we can relax," he says.

Improving agricultural productivity globally is one way to tackle the problem, he adds.

At present, 30-40% of all crops are lost due to pest and disease before they are harvested.

Professor Beddington says: "We have to address that. We need more disease-resistant and pest-resistant plants and better practices, better harvesting procedures.

"Genetically-modified food could also be part of the solution. We need plants that are resistant to drought and salinity - a mixture of genetic modification and conventional plant breeding.

Better water storage and cleaner energy supplies are also essential, he says.

Prof Beddington is chairing a subgroup of a new Cabinet Office task force set up to tackle food security.

But he says the problem cannot be tackled in isolation.

He wants policy-makers in the European Commission to receive the same high level of scientific advice as the new US president, Barak Obama.

One solution would be to create a new post of chief science adviser to the European Commission, he suggests.

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Wednesday, March 11, 2009

The Clash of the Titans--Coulter, Maher spar at Radio City

(Reuters )– Television personalities Ann Coulter and Bill Maher debate during the "Speaker Series: The Minds …"

Mr Ken plunked down $64.50 to attend the first of Radio City's "Speaker Series" between TV personalities Bill Maher (Real Time with Bill Maher-HBO) & Ann Coulter (author of the bestseller "Guilty") on Monday, March 9.

Mr. Maher also wrote and starred in the controversial 2008 documentary movie "Religulous", giving his take on the sad state of religion in the world today--which MrKen highly recommends!

What a treat to listen to the erudite Maher deconstruct right wing nut case Coulter's mostly nonsensical rantings with his hilarious and cutting humor!

It was occasionally chilling, however, to realize that there is a significant segment of the population out there who also do not believe in evolution, think that ghosts are real, and imagine that a personal deity watches over them--only choosing to have misfortune visited upon others (who no doubt deserve it--and are all 'lefties').

Oh yes, and some of these same no-nothings still insist that President Obama is a Muslim (as I overheard a nincompoop couple feverishly whispering next to me).

Maher is an outspoken liberal with libertarian leanings and a former stand up comic. His long running show "Politically Incorrect" was called the Best Talk Show on Television by TV Guide, and nominated for nine Emmy Awards.

Coulter is an acerbic and rabid right wing writer & lecturer who Meghan McCain, the daughter of the would be president, blogged was "offensive, radical, insulting and confusing, all at the same time". Coulter famously does not believe in evolution and labels science a form of faith!

Here are some excerpts of the debate from Yahoo News, curtesy of Politico.com

NEW YORK — Bill Maher couldn’t have asked for a better act to follow.

Maher took the stage at the Radio City Music Hall Monday after Ann Coulter – with whom he’d spend the rest of the night debating – had held forth for 15 minutes on the sins of liberals.

The applause for Maher was huge – exactly as one might expect in not-exactly-blood-red midtown Manhattan. “If we were having this debate in Springfield, Mo., it would be different,” Maher said.

But even in mostly hostile territory, Coulter was no shrinking violet. When moderate
Mark Halperin brought up Meghan McCain’s swipes of Coulter on The Daily Beast from earlier in the day — the daughter of the would-be president called her “offensive, radical, insulting, and confusing all at the same time" — Coulter said it didn’t bother her.

And Coulter dealt with the occasional boos while debating with Maher over stem cell research, Iraq and of course, the
44th president – all while delivering her own blows on everyone from Timothy Geithner to Nancy Reagan. ...

“Who put two wars on a credit card?” Maher asked. “There is this debt because George Bush spent money like a pimp with a week to live.”


Maher got applause for any shots at Bush, as when he mentioned Obama’s quoting of Voltaire — “no George W. Bush, that’s not a Harry Potter character.”

He used the term “bimbo” to describe Bush, Quayle and
Sarah Palin.

And Maher attacked those who consider themselves “real Americans,” by claiming that “if it wasn’t for the two coasts, this country would have been sold off to China thirty years ago.”



To read the rest of the story, please follow this link:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20090310/pl_politico/19830

And to read more about "Religulous", go here--
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religulous

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Monday, February 09, 2009

DISCO Fun Facts!





PARDON OUR FRENCH

What do D-Day and disco have in common, besides the letter D? Nazis, of course! During World War II, when the Third Reich occupied Paris, jazz clubs were closed and live music of a liberal nature was strictly verboten! But Parisians couldn't live without their jazz, so they took it underground, opening illicit cellars where they could drink booze freely and listen to pre-recorded music. One such club, on Rue de la Huchette, called itself La Discothèque - coined from the French words for "record" (disque) and "library" (bibliothèque

Curtesy of Disco Fun Facts-Neatorama

http://www.neatorama.com/2009/01/16/disco-fun-facts/

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Monday, December 15, 2008

Iraqi Journalist Hurls Shoes at Bush

Iraqi Journalist Hurls Shoes at Bush. Prime Minister al-Maliki tries for an interception.

MrKen Is old enough to remember
the famous shoe-banging incident that took place during the 902nd Plenary Meeting of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City on 12 October 1960, when the infuriated Premier of the Soviet Union pounded his shoe on the delegate desk. But at least Nikita Khrushchev didn't throw his shoes at the speaker.

During a news conference in Baghdad on Sunday, a reporter took off his shoes and hurled them at the president, who showed off his cat-like reflexes. Bush was not hit.

The Iraqi journalist who hurled his shoes at Mr. Bush’s head denounced him on live television as a “dog” who had delivered death and sorrow here from nearly six years of war.

Hitting someone with a shoe is considered the supreme insult in Iraq. It means that the target is even lower than the shoe, which is always on the ground and dirty. Crowds hurled their shoes at the giant statue of Mr. Hussein that stood in Baghdad’s Firdos Square before helping American marines pull it down on April 9, 2003, the day the capital fell. More recently in the same square, a far bigger crowd composed of Iraqis who had opposed the security agreement flung their shoes at an effigy of Mr. Bush before burning it.

For the full New York Times story, please follow this link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/15/world/middleeast/15prexy.html?th&emc=th


To read more about the Khrushchev shoe banging incident-- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoe-banging_incident

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Monday, November 24, 2008

On Gay Marriage

"Gays are the only people who actually still want to get married"--
Rabbi Shmuley Boteach on Larry King Live

It is simply breathtaking how unenlightened most of the U.S. remains on social issues eight years into the new millenium. Here is Rabbi Boteach's take on gay marriage.

"...What I will say is that religion in America has made homosexuality into a false bogeyman, which has seriously distracted religion from giving real values to an increasingly valueless society. Is this really what religious values in America has come to, opposition to gay marriage?"

"What do you think would do more to save heterosexual marriage in America? Making sure gays can't get hitched, or changing the tax code so that marital counseling among heterosexual couples becomes tax-deductible so that couples can actually afford the help they need? What should religion be devoting its energy to? Opposing gay marriage in California, or supporting an effective national campaign for school vouchers so that parents can afford to send their children to schools that teach religious values like male respect for women and the sanctity of a loving relationship?"

Read the full article in the Huffington Post here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rabbi-shmuley-boteach
/gays-as-the-new-religious_b_144339.html?page=2

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Monday, November 10, 2008

Real Unemployment Rate Soars to 11.8%

As Alan Abelson points out in this week's issue of Barron's, 240,000 payroll slots went up in smoke in October, and that total would have been higher by 71,000 were it not for these mythical jobs that were "created" via the infamous birth/death model.

Abelson also notes that--

"The category that gives you a better feel for the way things really are out there on the the job front is dubbed U-6 and includes marginally attached workers, part-timers who can't find a full-time job and the officially unemployed. In October, that measure reached 11.8%, the highest since 1994, when it was designed, compared with 7.9% a year ago."

MrKen is ever so thankful that he's retired!

To read this week's Barron's magazine for free follow this link:
http://online.barrons.com/public/main

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Thursday, September 18, 2008

On Being a Fool

It is better to be silent and thought a fool ..., than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.

--George Bernard Shaw

Sunday, August 17, 2008

The Alcoholic

"Why are you drinking?"demanded the little prince.
"So that I may forget," replied the tippler.
"Forget what?" inquired the little prince, who already was sorry for him.,
"Forget that I am ashamed," the tippler confessed, hanging his head.
"Ashamed of what?" insisted the little prince, who wanted to help him.
"Ashamed of drinking!" The tippler brought his speech to an end, and shut himself up in an impregnable silence.

Antoine de Saint-Exupery,
The Little Prince,

from 'Under the Influence', Milam & Ketcham (1981,1983)

The link in the title is to SMART Recovery.org meetings in NYC-- a scientifically based recovery program from addiction. It is most definitely NOT a 12-Step program. The home page for SMART Recovery is:
http://www.smartrecovery.org/

*Has MrKen really returned this time? We sure hope so...2008 has been a rough year thus far.

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Sunday, May 18, 2008

Einstein Thought God was a Childish Superstition

AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE -Albert Einstein described belief in God as "childish superstition" and said Jews were not the chosen people, in a letter, an auctioneer said.The father of relativity, whose previously known views on religion have been more ambivalent and fuelled much discussion, made the comments in response to a philosopher in 1954.

As a Jew himself, Einstein said he had a great affinity with Jewish people but said they "have no different quality for me than all other people". "The word God is for me nothing more than the expression and product of human weaknesses, the Bible a collection of honourable, but still primitive legends which are nevertheless pretty childish. "No interpretation no matter how subtle can (for me) change this," he wrote in the letter written on January 3, 1954 to the philosopher Eric Gutkind, cited by The Guardian newspaper. . .

In it, the renowned scientist, who declined an invitation to become Israel's second president, rejected the idea that the Jews are God's chosen people. "For me the Jewish religion like all others is an incarnation of the most childish superstitions," he said. "And the Jewish people to whom I gladly belong and with whose mentality I have a deep affinity have no different quality for me than all other people."And he added: "As far as my experience goes, they are no better than other human groups, although they are protected from the worst cancers by a lack of power. Otherwise I cannot see anything 'chosen' about them."

Curtesy of 'Undernews'--http://prorev.com/2008/05/einstein-thought-god-was-childish.html

--P.S. MrKen has been on an unplanned two month "sabbatical". I expect to be posting regularly once again.

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Saturday, May 17, 2008

Crude Oil, the Dollar & Gold -- A Disconnect

MrKen wonders when crude oil will correct and move lower. Is crude a "bubble" or not? In Friday's Wall Street Journal ((5/16/08)--"Bernanke's Bubble Laboratory"--the charts of the Nasdaq Composite (3/95-2002), Las Vegas Home Prices (8/01-2/08) & Crude Oil (6/03-present) are plotted on one graph. The chart of Oil and the Composite (which peaked in march 2000) look eerily similar. With the Fed sopping up excess liquidity recently, according to Barron's 'Up and Down Wall Street Daily' (5/16/08)by Randall Forsyth:

"The popular perception is that Bernanke has opened the floodgates. "The Fed is providing an extraordinary amount of liquidity," according to the head economist of a major bank.'

"The data, however, do not bear this out. The Fed itself actually has turned tight and growth in the money supply slowed from its breakneck pace in the past month. And, coincidentally, the dollar has pulled out of its nosedive and gold has pulled out of its ascent."

"...Specifically, the monetary base -- bank reserves plus currency, as measured by the St. Louis Fed -- contracted by 0.5% in April, according to calculations by Free Market Inc., a Chicago economic consultancy. Over the past three months, this measure of the Fed's own actions has grown at a mild 2.1% annual rate..."

--will crude oil soon follow the precious metals lower, despite bullish forecasts by Goldman, Sachs & UBS?

Kopin Tan writes in his column in this week's Barron's (5/19/08) "In Stocks, Summer Nonchalance Arrives Early"--


'...CRUDE OIL'S price tag isn't the only thing that's the subject of buzz; some of its recent relationships are also much talked about.'

'Take crude oil and gold, which have moved in lockstep over much of the past two years. Since mid-March, however, gold has pulled back more than 10%, partly as traders unwind their flight-to-safety trades while the credit crisis recedes. In contrast, oil has continued to climb, tacking on another 20% to an already impressive rally as the two commodities grow ever further apart.'

'Something unusual, too, is happening between crude oil and the dollar. These two have tended to move in opposite directions, and the dollar's weakening had in fact helped drive oil higher. Yet both have rallied over the past month.'

'If we expect these relationships to revert to their typical behavior, then crude's straying from the norm with both gold and the dollar suggests it may be well the errant one.'

'That has been true in the recent past. Bespoke Investment Group found just three instances since 1986 when oil has rallied 10% or more over a two-month period while gold fell by double-digit percentages. In the two months following such divergences, oil has declined two out of the three times to register an average loss of 22.5%. Gold, on the other hand, has rallied each time to post an average gain of 5.9%.'

'Exorbitant oil prices curb consumption and act as their own check, and few will be surprised if oil takes a breather after soaring nearly 150% over the past 16 months...'

Curtesy of
Barron's -http://online.barrons.com/public/main?mod=topnav
& http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121094212709898613.html?mod=rss_
barrons_up_and_down_wall_street_daily&page=2

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Sunday, March 16, 2008

The Internet as a Garbage Dump

The Wall Street Journal's weekend edition (3/15-3/16/08) noted the passing of Joseph Weizenbaum, 1923-2008, in its Remembrances column. Some excerpts from writer Stephen Miller--

'As author of a computer program called Eliza that was designed to simulate a psychiatrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Joseph Weizenbaum created a beguiling artifact of early computing. But after test subjects told him the program really empathized with their problems, Mr. Weizenbaum became a digital Jeremiah, and spent decades preaching the computer apocalypse.'

'The program was in effect a form of a Turing test, named for the computer scientist Alan Turing. In 1950, Turing predicted computers would soon be invented that would appear to think, and said a test of that development would be whether a person could distinguish a computer's dialogue from a human's.'

'...He soon soured on computers and condemned automated decision making as antihuman. In a lighter moment he called them "a solution looking for a problem".'

...'Even the rise of the Internet, with its seemingly boundless possibilities for communication, failed to impress Mr. Weizenbaum.'

"The Internet is like one of those garbage dumps outside of Bombay," he told the New York Times in 1999..."There are people, most unfortunately, crawling all over it, and maybe they find a bit of aluminum, or perhaps something they can sell. But mainly it's garbage."

MrKen has to agree that this observation is right on the money. Much of what is described by some as "opinion" posted on the Internet by the unwashed masses is just simplistic, uninformed nonsense. Unfortunately, these rants greatly outweigh in volume the articles and research posted by professional writers.

But these inane rants and scribblings would certainly not pass the Turing test!

To visit the Wall Street Journal Online, follow this link: http://online.wsj.com/public/us

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Sunday, March 02, 2008

Quantum's Jim Rogers says US 'out of control'

The case for commodity stocks has been forcefully, and in my opinion, quite correctly expressed by Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund. While sharp corrections are possible at any time, Rogers is taking a longer term view.

Especially alarming is his thesis of armed conflict over resources. But of course we have already experienced this; the U.S. invaded Iraq to secure the desperately needed oil resources of the region. To the conservative neocons** out there who insist that we selflessly sought to bring democracy to Iraq--well, Karl Rove appeared on Fox News on Sunday (3/2) as an analyst to point out that the U.S. could not allow Al-Qaeda to build up a base in Iraq because it would endanger our oil supply.

**The Wall Street Journal, for example, has written many silly, disingenuous editorials about this county's putative motives for invading Iraq; e.g., the invasion was not about oil but only about the fact that Saddam Hussein was a 'bad, bad man & killed many of his own people' & the U.S. is so selfless and pure that it was a moral imperative for our 'Dear Leader' to send its imperial armed forces to Iraq in order to topple him. As if siding with dictators with blood on their hands ever bothered Amerika; re Stalin, Batista, Franco, Shah Pahlavi of Iran. Not to mention supporting Saddam against Iran in the almost decade-long war in the 1980's and selling him much of the chemical weapons technology he later used to kill his own people (along with France & other European countries).

Memories tend to be quite short in the U.S.A.--as short as attention spans...

From the London Times Online (2/28/08):

And he also warned that it “made sense” if global competition for resources ended in armed conflict.

Mr Rogers told delegates to the CLSA investment forum that the prices of all agricultural products would “explode” in coming years and that the price of gold, which hit an all-time high of $964 an ounce yesterday, will continue its surge to as much as $3,500 an ounce.

Gold would continue to rise, the analyst Christopher Wood told fund managers, “because it is the exact opposite of a structured finance product”.

In a blistering attack on US monetary policy and the “helicopter cash drop” responses of the Federal Reserve, Mr Rogers described the American dollar as a “terribly flawed currency”.

He said that the plan by Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chairman, to “crank up the money-printing machines and run them until we run out of trees” had exposed America’s weakest point to her rivals and enemies.

The dollar may have declined recently, he added, “but you ain’t seen nothing yet”.

Talking to a room almost exclusively populated with Japan-focused equity investors, Mr Rogers recommended an immediate language course in Mandarin and a switch into commodities — the second-biggest market in the world behind foreign exchange.

Mr Rogers said that historic drains on wheat, corn and other soft commodity inventories have created market dynamics that could lead to severe food shortages.

The outlook over the next two decades would see prices of everything from cotton and sugar to lead and nickel “going through the roof”.

Heavily playing down the prospects of a big recovery in Japan, Mr Rogers said that the country’s demographics — as the fastest-aging country in the world — would cause it greater problems and an ever-diminishing quality of life for ordinary Japanese.

But he also said that other countries — including Britain, Italy, China and the US — should take note of what their own demographics would look like without the effect of immigration.

“Japan will be the perfect laboratory for the world to watch how a demographic crisis plays out,” he said.

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Saturday, March 01, 2008

Stock Picks for this Major Bear Market

MrKen has recently returned to trading stocks, as he has recently retired (62) and now has the free time to study and trade the market. Happily, I am showing @ a 15% profit for the January/February period in a most challenging investment environment. Here are the 3 long positions I currently have:

Coeur dAlene Mines Corporation (NYSE:CDE) -- silver, gold, lead & zinc
Hecla Mining Company (NYSE: HL) -- silver, gold, lead & zinc
Stillwater Mining Company (NYSE: SWC) -- palladium, platinum & other metals

Almost all of the profit has been from HL; SWC was only purchased on 2/29. CDE has risen modestly in the Jan/Feb period.

*****************************************************************
My short pick is: (but do not have an actual position at present)

Citigroup Inc (
NYSE:C) -- financial products & services

*****************************************************************

The rationale for these positions are both technical & fundamental:

TECHNICAL: The long positions have very high relative strength rankings (RS) as indicated in IBD (Investors Business Daily). The short pick has an extremely weak RS ranking. As discovered years ago by Edward O. Thorp (The Relative Strength Concept of Common Stock Forecasting--now out of print), stocks that are sharply above their 200-day moving average (MA) tend to outperform other stocks that have weaker rankings, with the converse being true for issues sharply below their 200 day MA.

FUNDAMENTAL: Silver, gold, platinum & palladium are soaring due partially to the decline in the dollar to record lows against the euro, yen & basket of 16 currences--and partially to favorable demand-supply considerations.

The greenback's slide is being caused mainly by the weak U.S. economy and the Fed's decision to "reflate" (print lots & lots of money) in order to avoid a sharp economic contraction (the dreaded 'R' word).- {More on this in a later post}-

Silver is beginning to outperform gold and most likely will actually benefit from the recently announced contemplated sales of gold by the IMF. Silver may be thought of as the "poor man's gold". Platinum, palladium & rhodium are also benefiting from power outages in South Africa (78% of world platinum productioncomes from South Africa) due to electrical infrastructure problems. These are not expected to be rectified until 2012!

And now on to my specific picks:

In 2007, Hecla Mining produced
5.6 million ounces of silver at an average total cash cost of negative $2.81 per ounce, after by-product credits. The company also has significant tax credits at its disposal.

Coeur dAlene Mines had 2007 cash costs of $3.97 per ounce of silver. Coeur has no silver or gold production hedged.

Stillwater Mining- The precious-metals miner reported a $14 million loss for 2007 on essentially flat revenue and experienced labor problems. But 'The Motley Fool' notes that--

"How many of the companies you own have roughly doubled in 2008? None? You must not be on board the Stillwater Mining (NYSE: SWC) express. Homegrown Stillwater, which is going into 2008 with a minimal amount of hedges remaining on its platinum output. Although the company is predicting a roughly 10% rise in per-ounce cash costs, its margins ought to be magnificent."

Citigroup Inc. - Commodities, with their transparent pricing and liquidity, are the exact opposite of the toxic products that Citigroup and its ilk have produced. CDO's, sub-prime mortgages & tens of millions in trading losses are what you get if you try to 'bottom fish' this dog. OPCO analyst Meredith Whitney, who correctly predicted a cut in Citigroup's dividend back in October, last week indicated that C could fall to 16 or lower on more writeoffs. A great short!

Disclaimer:

All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendations to invest, trade and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions and/or forecasts expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.

MrKen is NOT a registered Investment Advisor & therefore NONE of the above discussion should be taken as investment advice. It is the writer's personal opinion ONLY, except where specific cites from financial publications & professional analysts are given.

As indicated above, MrKen at the time of this posting has long positions in CDE, HL & SWC.




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Monday, February 25, 2008

Stock Market 'Pennant' Formation to Resolve Soon?



Here is some detailed technical analysis of the DJIA and its 'pennant formation', curtesy of Forex Capital markets, which appeared on the Yahoo Finance site on 2/25/08:

pennant

In technical analysis, refers to a chart pattern occurring when the trading range formed by successive highs and lows narrows over time.

Equities – Dow Jones Industrial Average

US equity markets have been in a downward trend since October as deteriorating economic data leads fears of a recession to build. Upcoming news could weigh on stocks, as housing sales and prices are forecasted to tumble while consumer confidence is anticipated to plunge, which does not bode well for the domestic economy as consumer spending represents approximately 70 percent of GDP. Meanwhile, a daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows price consolidating within a pennant formation, and given the sharp declines that preceded the recent moves, a bearish breakout is likely. However, if price holds above near-term support at 12,300 and manages to find a bid tone to break above 12,500, the index may target trendline resistance at 12,660.


Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Analyst, Forex Capital Markets LLC, DailyFX.com

Tell us what you think about this article. Email tbelkas@dailyfx.com

Curtesy of http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/
080225/1203952532617.html?.v=1

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And Barron's column "Streetwise" (2/25/08), by Michael Santoli, has some interesting observations on the tediously narrow range that has held the stock market captive this month---

"...As a sharp trader friend likes to say, "When nobody know what's going on, people turn to market technicals..."

"...it seems most everyone is turning in their spreadsheets for some charts, with talk of the Dow's "triangle" or "wedge" or "pennant" pattern all too common."

"To translate, this talk basically means that the Dow coiled itself into a tightening band. And the sages helpfully tell us that the pattern tends to be resolved by the index breaking hard--one way or the other. So, let's get this straight: Often, after a period when nothing much happens, something happens."

"If professional investors are bored, then individuals are...fleeing equities...investors have pulled nearly $60 billion from stock mutual funds this year, while adding more than $70 billion to money-market funds and small CDs..."

But "corporate insiders have been on a selling strike for nearly two months. The dollar-based ratio of insider sales to buys has been in the bullish zone pretty much all year...and down 90% from a year ago."

Robin Carpenter of www.CarpenterAnalytix.com is quoted in Santoli's column as saying--

"For what it's worth, my own expectation is that we are close {in time} to an upturn of some consequence, but that the market needs one more down-thrust of some energy."

To view this week's Barron's for free, go to http://online.barrons.com/this_week






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Thursday, January 17, 2008

Bear Market in Stocks Turns Vicious



Wall Street extended its 2008 plunge Thursday (1/17), sending the Dow Jones industrials down 306 points and to their lowest level since last March after a regional Federal Reserve report showed a sharp and unexpected decline in manufacturing activity. -- Yahoo Finance

Back on Dec. 24, I commented on some bullish sentiment readings on the stock market, as reported in Barron's Financial Weekly. These had occurred shortly after the Dow Theory major bear market signal given on November 21 (which I discussed on Dec. 4 & 18), when the Industrials closed at a new low. Indeed, a short-lived bounce occurred.

But the current bear market quickly has resumed -- and turned vicious, as bear markets are wont to do--with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index also piercing its August low. In addition, all the averages are now well below their 200-day moving averages.

MrKen is very bearish on the markets himself & will begin trading within the next 10 days. I have been reviewing potential candidates for selling short--the only possible long positions I like are some of the gold & silver mining stocks**...Stocks almost always fall faster than they rise & MrKen is a pessimist at heart, anyway. :>)

Some comments on the dire state of the equity markets follow from Barron's (The Trader, by Kopin Tan 1/14/08)

"...Might Tuesday's (1/8) low--the S & P finished at 1390 that day--form a meaningful shrt-term bottom? The AAII survey showed a flash of panic, with the percentage of bears reaching 59%, the highest reading since 1990. But the VIX forecast as measured by the VIX volatility index had pushed to just 26--well below August's 37. At the International Securities Exchange, investors bought just 0.72 calls for every put--more fearful than the recent average near 1.16, but still more complacent than the 0.51 low registered before August's rebound."

"Andrew Burkly, Brown Brothers Harriman's market strategist, isn't entirely ready to buy this low, partly because the market's long term upward trend may be changing. 'If the market has transitioned to a primary downtrend, oversold signals need to be deeper to be significant,' he notes."

"Burkley says measures like selling intensity, price momentum and investor sentiment are moving toward extremes, but most are still less extreme than levels seen last August. 'A deeper oversold condition is necessary to indicate that the risk/reward balance for equities has turned favorable.'

To view this week's Barron's for free, follow this link:
http://online.barrons.com/this_week

Disclaimer:

All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendations to invest, trade and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions and/or forecasts expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.

MrKen is NOT a registered Investment Advisor & NONE of the above discussion should be taken as investment advice. It is the writer's personal opinion ONLY, except where specific cites from financial publications are given.

MrKen has no market positions at the time of this post.


** Specific ideas will appear soon...

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Monday, January 07, 2008

Huckabee Hunts for Pakistani Terrorists in Iowa

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, the GOP's 'Christian' candidate, is a rube as clueless as they come (except for 'W' of course). Barron's Alan Abelson hilariously satirized this political parvenu* in his 'Up & Down Wall Street' column of Jan. 7, 2008--

"The geographically challenged Mr. Huckabee, whose strongest card seems to be his amiability, demonstrated to the apparent satisfaction of the state's Republicans that he was a regular guy by donning some hunting gear and shooting at flocks of quizzical birds. But, in fact, our Iowa sources tell us, he was really after bigger game: He was keen on picking off some Pakistani terrorists who, he implied, have been sneaking into Iowa by the thousands to do their mischief."

"For Mr. Huckabee seems to have confused Pakistan with Mexico in terms of their respective locations and also seems to believe that Iowa borders on Mexico/Pakistan. We must admit we never did a thorough survey of the state in the considerable time we spent in such places as Red Oak and Iowa City. So it could be he's discovered a hitherto unknown sliver of the state (that) snakes its way undetected to the nations southern border. We're quite eager to see what comparable revelations Mr. Huckabee's journeys through New Hampshire yield."

*parvenu - A person who has suddenly risen above his social and economic class without the background or qualifications for his new status.

Hahahahahaha...Alan Abelson's column alone is worth the price of a Barron's subscription. :>) MrKen has been reading his gems for almost 40 years.

To get a free look at this week's Barron's, follow this link: (but you will have to subscribe or purchase a newstand copy ($5.00) to read Abelson's complete "Up & Down Wall Street" column.

http://online.barrons.com/public/main?mod=topnav

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Friday, December 28, 2007

'Spaghetti Monster' scares Off Creationist Pols

MrKen is considering becoming a "Pastafarian". Pastafarians believe that a Flying Spaghetti Monster created the universe...


An artistic drawing of Him creating a mountain, trees, and a midget. Remember, we are all His creatures.

The following story is curtesy of 'Undernews' (12/26/07)...

TAMPA TRIBUNE
[At the Polk County School Board] five of its seven members declared a personal belief in the concept of intelligent design, the religiously based explanation of the development of life believed in by many Christians.

Four of those five sympathetic board members said they would like to see intelligent design taught in Polk schools as an alternative to Darwinian evolution, at a time when new state standards mentioning evolution by name for the first time are under consideration. . .

Yet a few weeks later, the controversy is dying with a whimper. There's no board support for a challenge to the proposed standards. Some of the five school board members blame the local newspaper for trying to start a fight. . .

What happened? You can start with the Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster. The satirical religious Web site asserts that an omnipotent, airborne clump of spaghetti intelligently designed all life with the deft touch of its "noodly appendage." Adherents call themselves Pastafarians. They deluged Polk school board members with e-mail demanding equal time for Flying Spaghetti Monsterism's version of intelligent design.

"They've made us the laughingstock of the world," said Margaret Lofton, a school board member who supports intelligent design. She dismissed the e-mail as ridiculous and insulting.

To visit the 'Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster', please follow this link:
http://www.venganza.org/

To visit the 'Undernews' site, please follow this link:
http://prorev.com/2007/12/spaghetti-monster-scares-off.html

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Monday, December 24, 2007

Weekly CBOE Put/Call Ratio Turns Bullish -- A Tradeable Rally?

Per Barron's Market Laboratory - Indicators (12/24/07), the weekly put/call ratio has turned bullish, especially for equity options.

"Investors rely on the equity put-call ratio, which tends to track individual trades, and the index put-call ratio, which reflects professional and institutional strategies, as contrary sentiment indicators. The higher the put trading, the more bullish the indication and vice-versa..."

"Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100 and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish...Bearish signals flash when the equity put-call level reaches the vicinity of about 30:100 and the index ratio hits 75:100."

MrKen notes that the equity put-call ratio was .84 for the week ended 12/14/07, the highest since a reading of .91 for the week ended August 17--which preceded a rally of @ 1000 points in the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. The S&P 100 Index (OEX) ratio was at 1.26, a mildly bullish reading--but far off its levels of 1.65 for the week ended 8/24/07 and 1.88 for the week ended 10/12/07.

In addition, the AAII Index (American Association of individual investors) for last week was 35.9% Bullish & 47.2% Bearish--another contrary indicator giving off a short-term 'buy' reading.

So, it looks like Santa Claus may show up on Wall Street in the 'Nick' of time, after all!

Disclaimer: MrKen is NOT a registered Investment Advisor & NONE of the above should be taken as investment advice. It is the writer's Personal opinion ONLY, except where specific cites are given. MrKen has no market positions at the time of this post.

To view this week's Barron's for free, follow this link (MrKen has no connection to Barron's, except as a devoted reader for over 40 years):

http://online.barrons.com/this_week

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Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Dow Theory Bear Market Signal & Sentiment Readings-- Follow-Ups



In the Dec. 10 issue of Barron's, Richard Russell, the publisher of Dow Theory Letters, discounted the Dow's recent (at the time) ebullience as characteristic of every bear kickoff.

"Often, bear market rallies look better than the real thing," warns Russell. "But once the market tops out, it will continue down until it's severely undervalued again."

Even if one is skeptical of technical analysis, one reason to care about Dow Theory is that so many others do--especially institutional investors who leave a large wake..

MrKen notes that the rally from the late November lows has resulted in weakened sentiment readings. According to Investor's Intelligence, the latest sounding of advisory sentiment showed a marked increase in bullishness to 53.3%, from 49.4%, and a corresponding shrinkage in bearishness to 25.6%, from 27.6%--these are, of course, contrary indicators (curtesy of Alan Abelson's-"Up & Down Wall Street" column-Barron's,12/17/07). Similarly, the AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) Index is 47.6% Bullish & 35.7% Bearish, up sharply from readings 3 weeks ago of 28.6% Bullish & 56.1% Bearish (from Barron's 'Market Laboratory-Indicators, 12/17/07).

It would therefore seem that the technical underpinnings of the stock market for a sharp "Santa Claus" end-of-the-year rally are absent from the scene--despite reported heavy insider buying of retail & some financial issues.

Disclaimer: MrKen is NOT a registered Investment Advisor & NONE of the above should be taken as investment advice. It is the writer's Personal opinion ONLY, except where specific cites are given. MrKen has no market positions at the time of this post.

To view this week's Barron's for free, follow this link (MrKen has no connection to Barron's, except as a devoted reader for over 40 years):

http://online.barrons.com/this_week

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Tuesday, December 04, 2007

'Dow Theory' Major Bear Market Signal



According to the Nov. 12 issue of Barron's, Richard Russell, the publisher of Dow Theory Letters, indicated the potential of a classic Dow Theory bear-market signal.

"The Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation averages plunged to end-of-day lows of 12,845.78 and 4,672.35, respectively, on Aug. 16. Both then rallied. But while the industrials hit a record 14,164.53 on Oct. 9, the transports didn't come near a record, thus failing to confirm the DJIA's strength. This set up the potential for a classic DOW Theory bear-market signal."

"That signal would come if both averages--and I emphasize both--slip below their August 16 lows. The Transports did dip under their low last week, ending at 4603.92 ..."

MrKen notes that on 11/21 the Industrials closed at 12,799.04, below even the low ebb of trading during the summer's credit crisis--completing the Bear Market signal.

However, before any of my gentle readers rush to sell the market short, they should be aware that many short-term technical indicators are flashing strong 'BUY' signals-- such as insider trading activity. Again, according to Barron's Michael Santoli ('What to Ask Mr. Market'-11/26), for the week of Nov. 19, the ratio of insider selling to buying was down to four, deep in buy signal territory and at a level last seen the week of Aug. 23.

And there is dissent from certain quarters. UBS strategists and others have put forth the Baltic Dry index (a measure of spot cargo demand) as the 21st century transport average. It remains strong.

Disclaimer: MrKen is NOT a registered Investment Advisor & NONE of the above should be taken as investment advice. It is the writer's opinion ONLY, except where specific cites are given. MrKen has no market positions at the time of this post.

To view this week's Barron's for free, follow this link: http://online.barrons.com/public/main?refresh=on

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Thursday, November 15, 2007

More on Aging & Death-Exercise IS Medicine

Two days after I posted **"Running as Medicine for Elders-The Fifth Avenue Mile 2007 (11/5/07)", the usually excellent and widely read elderblog* 'Time Goes By' (Ronni Bennett) posted "On Fear of Aging and Death", which contained this quote--that MrKen took issue with--

**http://mrken45sworld.blogspot.com/2007/11/
running-as-medicine-for-elders-fifth.html


"A lot of people (boomers?) seem to be convinced that if they lift one more weight or run one more mile, they will never get old. Even if you don’t succumb to cosmetic surgery or spend too much money on expensive anti-aging creams that don’t work, there comes a day, I think, when it’s too much effort any longer to keep up the pretense."

"You realize that you do get tired more easily than your younger friends or something inside compels you to skip the daily workout in favor of a good book or those sexy high-heeled shoes hurt too much to wear today. That, my friends, is the beginning of accepting your age."

MrKen's comment (#21) was as follows:

Hi Ronni,

While I genuinely enjoy your blog , I strongly disagree with the following quote in your post 'On Fear of Aging and Death'--

"A lot of people (boomers?) seem to be convinced that if they lift one more weight or run one more mile, they will never get old. Even if you don’t succumb to cosmetic surgery or spend too much money on expensive anti-aging creams that don’t work, there comes a day, I think, when it’s too much effort any longer to keep up the pretense."

"You realize that you do get tired more easily than your younger friends or something inside compels you to skip the daily workout in favor of a good book or those sexy high-heeled shoes hurt too much to wear today. That, my friends, is the beginning of accepting your age."

This point of view strikes me as unnecessarily negative & fatalistic. Frankly, many of the bodily changes attributed to "aging" are really due to a premature deterioration on account of an increasingly unhealthy American lifestyle. Obesity and a sedentary existence have been increasingly linked to many diseases-- including various cancers, diabetes, cardiovascular ailments, as well as injuries and falls.

Because muscle mass, bone density & cardiovascular capacity can decline markedly as we age, exercise becomes an increasingly important tool to combat this lifestyle-related deterioration that is really PREMATURE aging. And regular aerobic exercise releases chemicals in the brain that act as natural antidepressants.

I think that it's also important to differentiate between silly & expensive 'cosmetic' attempts to forestall the aging process (like surgery & cremes) versus healthy and useful choices like aerobic exercise and a good diet.

I recently (11/5) posted "Running as Medicine for Elders-the Fifth Avenue Mile 2007" on my blog. Many in their 70's, 80's & even 90's (!) are happily doing competitive running (& other sports)--rather than unhealthily obsessing about their approaching demise. I hope you will get a chance to read it and I welcome your comments.

No, lifting one more weight or running one more mile will not prevent you from getting old. But you just might enjoy your 'golden years' a lot more!

Posted by: Ken on Nov 8, 2007 6:01:18 PM

A similar sentiment to that expressed in 'Time Goes By' seemed to be endorsed in the book "The Denial of Aging" (Perpetual Youth, Eternal Life, and Other Dangerous Fantasies"--Muriel R. Gillick, M.D.) {2006}.In fact, I wrote about some of the other interesting ideas discussed therein in my post on this blog, dated 5/23/07--but not this one (although I did mention the review):

A review on the back cover noted, " Finally, a book that tells the truth about aging, starting with the fact that eating right and exercising will not prevent it. Dr. Gillick provides a fascinating guide for the journey into old age, and shows us how to make the best of it. Boomers (and most other grown-ups) will find her book right on target."-- Marcia Angell, former Editor in Chief, New England Journal of Medicine, and author of "The Truth about the Drug Companies."

Notwithstanding the foregoing review, MrKen reiterates that eating right & exercising accomplishes the following:

1) Exercise counters depression, which recently has been identified in studies as a disease having more adverse effects on health & longevity than many serious physical diseases.

2) Aerobic exercise like jogging, swimming & tennis strengthen the heart & cardiovascular system, and may prevent the onset of diabetes and Alzheimers.

3) Weight training adds to bone mass, helping to prevent brittle bones from breaking in falls by frail elders--falls which have been indicated in adversely affecting longevity.

4) Enhances the quality of life.

Be forewarned--elders & near-elders may rationalize their laziness or fatalism all they want--but as you age you need to do MORE exercise than you did when you were younger--not less. Use it or lose it, as they say...

"At 20, one has the body he/she was born with--at 60, one has the body he/she deserves". -Anonymous

"Death is the enemy--the life cycle [is] completely unacceptable."...-Michael West, founder of Geron & a molecular biologist who is researching aging.


*To read the full post in 'Time Goes By' by Ronni Bennett, please follow this link: http://www.timegoesby.net/weblog/2007/11/on-fear-of-agin.html#comments

To read my earlier post on the 'Denial of Aging' (5/23/07) please go here:
http://mrken45sworld.blogspot.com/2007/05/denial-of-aging-part-i.html







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Monday, November 05, 2007

Running As Medicine For Elders-The Fifth Avenue Mile 2007

Abraham Weintraub of Greater New York, was the most senior runner—at 98 years old, he finished the Fifth Avenue mile in 18:49.


A few meters from the start of the George Sheehan Memorial Mile 70+ race, the competitors begin to break away.

(Right frame)The leading lady in the 70+ women’s race was Eve Pell of Greenbrae, CA (7:04).

(above left) First-place George Sheehan Memorial Mile 60 to 69 race winner Harold Nolan of the Shore Athletic Club pulled in a speedy 5:14 finish.

As a member of the 'Elderblogger' community, MrKen is aware of plenty of complaints written by some of my 'baby-boomer' (and older) peers--but often still in their 40's & 50's--about declining vigor, reduced libido & various aches and pains supposedly caused by aging. And while lip-service is usually paid to the ideals of a healthy diet and exercise--I am unaware of many in my age group that actually follow an exercise program of any kind.

Frankly, many of the bodily changes attributed to "aging" are really due to a premature deterioration on account of an increasingly unhealthy American lifestyle. Obesity and a sedentary existence have been increasingly linked to many diseases-- including various cancers, diabetes, cardiovascular ailments, as well as injuries and falls.

Because muscle mass, bone density & cardiovascular capacity can decline markedly as we age, exercise becomes an increasingly important tool to combat this lifestyle-related deterioration that is really premature aging. And regular aerobic exercise releases chemicals in the brain that act as natural antidepressants.

MrKen currently combines a 7 mile walk & 1 1/2 mile run @ 3 times a week. During the summer, I played tennis at least once or twice a week, generally with much younger players (singles & doubles) for 4-5 hours/session. I also do training with free-weights. I am determined not to suffer the fate of my father, who died of a heart attack at age 62 (my age now), after suffering from angina & heart failure for a number of years.

But I have to admit that my efforts seem to pale against what some elders have accomplished.

During the running of this year's NYC Marathon, it was announced that the oldest male participant was 88 years old--while the oldest female competitor was 87!

On Sept. 29 the Continental Airlines Fifth Avenue Mile competition was held; really a series of races from 80th Street to 60th Street. According to The New York Times & the New York Road Runners Club, there were a bevy of older runners:

--The oldest runner of the day was 98-year-old Abe Weintraub of Brooklyn. His time was 18:49, and he was proud. "I'm glad I ran it," he said. "I'm glad I finished. It becomes tough, but i could run another mile right now. I ran the whole mile, no walking. Will I run next year? Sure. I'll run every year. It's become a habit."

--Weintraub was not last in the George Sheehan memorial race for those 70 and older (named for the cardiologist & marathon runner). David Gerli, 96, of Manhattan, finished in 21:03 and was disappointed. "I didn't do as well as I thought I would," he said. "I broke my hip two years ago, and fell in the spring. That's why I can't sprint. I didn't run. I walked fast. I hope I'll do better next year.

--The fastest in the 80-84 age group was John Bates of Pleasantville, N.Y., in an (amazing) 7:29. He indicated that he "started running in high school, gave it up and then started running again. About next year, I'm not sure. When you're in your 80's, you have to take it year by year."

--Joan Rowland,81...said she was taking life a year at a time. She ran a 10:27 and said, "I feel O.K." She added..."Next year, if I'm alive, I'll run it again." Rowland said running had been a tonic. "I've had heart disease, cancer of the arm and several ministrokes," she said. "I started running when I was 71 to help me recover from cancer. Running is my medicine."

Curtesy of the New York Times- to read the full article follow this link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/30/sports/othersports/30track.html

Curtesy of the New York Road Runners Club-for the full story & many more pictures, go here:
http://www.nyrr.org/races/2007/mile/gallery_local.asp

*** Do NOT initiate an exercise program of any kind without medical clearance from your doctor, ESPECIALLY if you are over 60 years of age & ESPECIALLY if you have heretofore led a sedentary lifestyle. Yearly EKG's & medical monitoring are mandatory for joggers who are past 60 years of age. (Per Kenneth Cooper, the "Aerobics" guru). To read about him, go here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_H._Cooper

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Friday, October 26, 2007

Gambler Won't Eat Until He Can Play Roulette Again

A Romanian man has taken compulsive gambling to a new level, by going on a hunger strike after being banned from a local casino. One suspects this is publicity the gambling industry could do without!

Ioan Seutiut was kicked out of the casino for allegedly swearing and shouting too loud while playing roulette, but the man claims that he was not doing anything different from anyone else that was in the casino.

"They say I swear and talk to loud but everybody shouts in there especially when losing. After all it's not a church, it's the roulette", said Seutiut in response to being thrown out.

He is currently sitting out front of the casino with a note that reads, "Roulette Hunger Strike".

The patron plans to sit outside until allowed back in and claims he will not accept medical attention or eat food until he's readmitted to the casino.

He went on to say, "I have a lot of money on me and I want to play it all on the Roulette but they just don't let me."

He plans to erect a tent just outside the casino and stay in it until he is allowed to play or is given back the he lost there--about $10,000.

He claims, "I love the Roulette even though it cost me lots of money. But that's my problem and all I ask from this casino is to let me play. If not I will not leave this place."

Curtesy of gaming today: http://www.gamingtoday.com/
&
Net Bet Blog: http://www.netbetblog.com/2007_10_01_archive.html

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