Why You Can't Get Social Security If You Refuse Medicare!

MrKen will turn 65 next year, and has been researching articles on Medicare in an attempt to ascertain whether it's worthwhile or not to sign up. On balance, the Medicare system may not represent an especially good value for seniors, both on the issues of access to certain tests and treatment options--not to mention the pressing issue of economic viability--a nice way to say it is careening towards insolvency.

Make no mistake about it, should a version of "ObamaCare" somehow become law this year or early in 2010, much of the putative 'savings' will come out of the Medicare budget; some experts estimate payments to doctors and hospitals next year would drop as much as 20%, the obvious result being that many more physicians than heretofore will refuse to accept Medicare patients. To quote a paragraph in a recent New York Times editorial entitled "Medicare Scare Mongering"- 9/26/09 -

Republican opponents have also been warning that planned cuts in payments to hospitals and other health care providers might make them less willing or able to serve Medicare patients. If true, that is a problem that Congress will have to address in the future.

"If true" - ! That certainly does not indicate that the Times has done particularly careful research on the matter. In fact, many diagnostic tests and treatments are not covered by Medicare even now, and wholesale fraud is rampant in the system, as a recent "60 minutes" documentary revealed.

But all that is NOT the point of this post.

Incredible as it may seem, if I decide to forego enrolling in Part A of Medicare--the basic hospitalization coverage--I would lose my Social Security Retirement benefits, present and future! Not only that, but since I chose early retirement at age 62, if I opt out of Health Insurance at age 65, I would have to pay back to the government ALL the benefits previously collected!

And here's why...

On August 30, 1993, the Social Security Administration added two substantive rules to its “Program Operations Manual” to address the fact that “ Some individuals entitled to monthly benefits have asked to waive Hospital Insurance (HI) entitlement because of religious or philosophical reasons, or because they prefer other health insurance.” -These rules, while promulgated by SSA, are enforced by both SSA and HHS-[Health & Human Services].-

The first rule reads:

“Individuals entitled to monthly benefits which confer eligibility for HI may not waive HI entitlement. The only way to avoid HI Entitlement is through withdrawal of the monthly benefit application. Withdrawal requires repayment of all Retirement, Survivors, Disability Insurance (RSDI) and HI benefit payments.”

The second rule reads:

“To withdraw from the HI program, an individual must submit a written request for withdrawal and must refund any HI benefits paid on his/her behalf … An individual who filed an application for both monthly benefits and HI may:

• Withdraw the claim for monthly benefits without jeopardizing HI entitlement; or

• Withdraw the claim for both monthly benefits and HI. The individual may not elect to withdraw only the HI claim.”

Notice this Clinton rule change allows you to yield your SS benefits and keep Medicare, but you may not keep your SS retirement checks and yield your Medicare enrollment.

To read the rest of the article, go to...

http://www.floppingaces.net/2009/08/03/seniors-boomers-healthcare-choice-enroll-in-medicare-or-lose-your-social-security-retirement-checks/

Still skeptical? No, I have never heard of the "floppingaces" website either. But 'The Wall Street Journal.com' in an editorial dated 10/28/08 wrote:

Senior Liberation Act

Why You Can't Get Social Security If You Refuse Medicare

For all of America's cherished belief in choice and freedom, it remains an astonishing fact that the U.S. government forces citizens over the age of 65 into a subpar health plan of its choosing. And so it is with some hope that we greet a new federal lawsuit (Hall v Sibelius)* that aims to allow senior citizens to flee Medicare. *per MrKen

The suit comes courtesy of Kent Masterson Brown, a lawyer who has previously tangled with the government over Medicare benefits. Mr. Brown represents three plaintiffs who are suing the federal government to be allowed to opt out of Medicare without losing their Social Security benefits.

Amazingly, this is not currently allowed. While the Social Security law does not require participants to accept Medicare, and the Medicare law does not require participants to accept Social Security, the Clinton Administration in 1993 tied the programs together. Under that policy, any senior who withdraws from Medicare also loses Social Security benefits.

For the rest of the article, please follow this link: http://online.wsj.com/articleSB122506801638770679.html

And a follow up Journal article on 10/4/09:

'...Last week, Washington D.C. District Judge Rosemary Collyer handed a victory to three plaintiffs seeking that right. President Obama's Department of Health and Human Services had sought to dismiss the suit challenging so-called POMS rules that say seniors who withdraw from Medicare Part A must also surrender their Social Security benefits. (Part A covers hospital and outpatient services.) The judge ruled the plaintiffs have standing to contest their claim on the merits.

POMS were imposed in 1993 during the Clinton Administration and set forth rules that aren't in the statute or regulations governing Medicare. The three plaintiffs—Brian Hall, John Kraus and former U.S. House Majority Leader Richard Armey—all had health-care plans they preferred to the coverage they were compelled to receive through Medicare.

In her ruling this week, the judge said that "neither the statute nor the regulation specifies that Plaintiffs must withdraw from Social Security and repay retirement benefits in order to withdraw from Medicare." Article I of the Constitution gives Congress sole power to legislate—so when agency rules conflict with federal statute, the statute takes precedence.

The Obama Administration argued that the case should be dismissed because the plaintiffs had not exhausted the available administrative remedies for challenging POMS. Judge Collyer rejected that notion, noting that one plaintiff had sought an administrative hearing but "received no response from the SSA for approximately three years." Exhaustion of remedies was therefore "futile." A three-year wait is precisely the kind of bureaucratic hassle, or deliberate stonewalling, that government is famous for...

The response of the Obama Administration to this lawsuit is revealing about its principles, as opposed to its rhetoric. President Obama says his plan for a "public option" wouldn't be coercive, saying that "If you like your health-care plan, you keep your health-care plan. Nobody is going to force you to leave your health-care plan." But here is a case where federal bureaucrats are using their power to force Medicare on seniors. Let's hope the courts restore a genuine right to choose....(emphases MrKen)

Link to full story: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704471504574446831381142174.html#articleTabs%3Darticle

Apparently SSA conjured the requirement to sign up for part A of Medicare out of thin air "without public notice and comment."

*******************************************

MrKen is growing increasingly frustrated and alarmed with the Obama Administration. Along with comedian & libertarian Bill Maher, I really cannot see very much difference between Bush & Obama's increasingly reactionary policies. Are the aforementioned the kind of "choices" we can expect from the Administration's so-called Universal Health Care?

And no thoughtful person can seriously expect another huge new government program to actually save money over the next ten years. According to the WSJ, Medicare is now 37 times more costly (taking into account inflation) than at its inception. And it is nearly bankrupt. Considering the looming trillion dollar plus deficits on the horizon due to massive overspending and yet another expensive, open-ended military adventure -Afganistan- where exactly will the money come from? The same Times editorial optimistically opines:

...The Obama administration and Congressional leaders are hoping to save hundreds of billions of dollars by slowing the growth of spending in the vast and inefficient Medicare system that serves 45 million older and disabled Americans. The savings would be used to help offset the costs of covering tens of millions of uninsured people. (italics mine)

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/27/opinion/27sun1.html/

As I noted, where will the money come from?

********************************************

On Oct. 13, lead counsel for the plaintiffs, Kent Masterson Brown, discussed the lawsuit and recent judicial rulings re Hall v Sibelius at a Capitol House Briefing. Also speaking was Michael F. Cannon, Director of Health Policy Studies, Cato Institute, and co-author of Healthy Competition: What's Holding Back Health Care and How to Free It.

How Government "Competes": Grab Arm, Twist Cato Institute: Capitol Hill Briefing

(Simply click on the above text to view video)

Finally, for an overview of articles on this lawsuit & related issues, go to "The Fund For Personal Liberty" website at http://thefundforpersonalliberty.org/

While this site appears to be a conservative mouthpiece (quoting the Washington Times, etc.) it does contain many interesting and useful references-e.g., Ron Paul on Medicare [it's broke].


Posted using ShareThis

**Capitol House Briefing Curtesy of the Cato Institute-http://www.cato.org/event.php?eventid=6626

Serena Williams Foot Fault vs. Kim Clijsters in Women's Semifinal

Viewers please note: a complete discussion of this controversial default is contained in post below (after Cats that look like Hitler). The original link to the video in that post is broken & cannot be deleted.

Does Your Cat Look Like Hitler?

chaplin (owned by vikki) (3834)
Mon Sep 14 2009 at 02:49:59

DOLPHY (owned by Pauline) (3822)
Thu Sep 10 2009 at 17:06:49

Adolph the stray! (owned by Sotiris) (3809)
Tue Sep 08 2009 at 17:25:12

Does your cat look like Adolf Hitler? Do you wake up in a cold sweat every night wondering if he's going to up and invade Poland? Does he keep putting his right paw in the air while making a noise that sounds suspiciously like "Sieg Miaow"? If so, this is the website for you.

http://www.catsthatlooklikehitler.com/cgi-bin/seigmiaow.pl?3835

Follow the link for more details on this amusing site...

Serena Williams Foot-Fault in 2009 US Open semi-final vs Kim Clijsters

As a tennis player who wished that more recreational hackers knew at least a little bit about the rules, and more importantly, the "Code", I have more than a passing interest in the Serena Williams "foot-fault" controversy.

After reading many press reports of the incident & after personally viewing the Williams-Clijsters semifinals match on ESPN 2 Saturday night, as well as the You Tube videos of the incident, here are my conclusions...

There is no video that shows that the foot-fault call by the lines person on Serena's second serve at 15-30 and 5-6 in the 2nd set was incorrect, despite some reports to the contrary in the press & TV. While ESPN's replay and angle were inconclusive, other coverage (British broadcast?) played the incident in slow motion and seemingly at a better angle--which clearly showed the foot fault. The commentator then remarks "There's the foot-fault."

Please study the video above***the 'Cats that look like Hitler' post (especially at the point after the sequence of events is explained to Clijsters) and decide for yourself if I am indeed correct. I suggest that the clip be viewed in full screen mode.
***please ignore the video below--link is broken.

Williams had been called for a foot fault earlier in the set, not to mention being called for a number of foot faults in an earlier doubles match.

As a matter of fact, foot-faults are a problem she has had her entire career, not just at the U.S. Open--as she insisted at her "ridiculous, disingenuous" news conference (description by Mike Lupica of the Daily News). She sarcastically offered to "stand 2 feet in back of the baseline" in future matches in New York.

However, it must be admitted that foot faults are called very inconsistently--even at Grand Slam events. There seems to be an unwritten rule that this violation is not generally called unless it is egregious, and especially not on 'important' points, where the fate of the match might be decided by the call.

That this problem occurs again and again is certainly the fault of the ITF, USTA, the Grand Slam and other tournament commitees. The obvious consequence is that lines umpires are inadequately trained and unsure how to rule. Do line judges now have to consider the score and the importance of the event? Wouldn't this impact their impartiality?

Also, in this specific incident, few have pointed out that the chair umpire had the power to overrule an incorrect foot fault call. Why Williams did not appeal to the chair instead of threatening the line judge with her ghetto/thug act we'll never know...

'In matches where line umpires are assigned, they make all calls (including foot-fault calls) relating to that line or net. The chair umpire has the right to overrule a line umpire or a net umpire if the chair umpire is sure that a clear mistake has been made...'

USTA Tennis Rules & Regulations Handbook ITF Rules of Tennis
Appendix V

Since the chair umpire did not overrule in this case, it must be assumed that he was NOT sure that a clear mistake had been made. Incidentally, Williams later appeared to agree that 'she probably foot-faulted'.


In "Straight Sets", the Tennis Blog of The New York Times, these interesting and relevant insights into sports officiating were offered on 9/13--

The Thinking Behind Calling Foot Faults

"A foot fault occurs when the server touches the baseline or the court with either foot. Sometimes a player’s foot slides forward and touches the line inadvertently, and, because a player can’t see the rule violation, the foot-fault call provokes a lot of anger. Often the players’ frustration with themselves is then directed at the line official. For Serena Williams, who has been called for foot faults throughout her career, the call came at a critical moment in the match. Down by a set and serving at 5-6 and 15-30, the call on her second serve gave Kim Clijsters two match points.

Carol Cox, a veteran tennis official who evaluates line officials and referees for the United States Tennis Association, said there were two schools of thought on making a foot-fault call at a critical juncture in the match.

“One philosophy is that it is a rule, and you call it when you see it,” Cox said. “The second way of thinking is more in line with a good N.B.A. official: You don’t make a call that can decide a match unless it’s flagrant.”

John McEnroe had a similar view to the N.B.A. comparison when he was commenting on the CBS broadcast on Saturday night. “You can’t call that there,” he said.

Serena Williams had received a warning for a code violation, for smashing her racket after the first set, so her next offense resulted in a point penalty. The lineswoman, whose name has not been released, is trained to report such abuse immediately to the chair umpire.

In the end, Williams’s outburst decided the game, the set and the match.

To read the full article quoted above, please follow this link:

http://straightsets.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/13/the-thinking-behind-calling-foot-faults/

Henin Tipped for Shock Return by Belgian Media!

Allez!

Justine Henin, displaying the winner's trophy for the 2007 U.S. Open, after dispatching both the Williams sisters & solidifying her hold on the #1 ranking--which she held for more than 12 months.
A baffled Serena Williams during her quarterfinal loss in the 2007 U.S. Open to Justine Henin--Clueless & Classless
A Comeback a la Clijsters?

(AFP) – Aug 26, 2009

BRUSSELS — Belgian media were speculating Wednesday on a possible return to women's tennis of former world number one and multiple Grand Slam title winner Justine Henin, 15 months after she retired from the game.

Noting that Henin, 27, is back in training for exhibition matches, several papers have speculated she may return to the circuit as compatriot Kim Clijsters did earlier this summer.

In MrKen's opinion, Henin was the best player of her generation--YES, that includes both of the Williams' sisters!

No less an authority than Billie Jean King said that "pound for pound, Henin is the best tennis player of her generation."

And John McEnroe noted that her "one-handed backhand as the best single-handed backhand in the women's or men's game."

In the 2007 U.S. Open, Henin defeated her first four opponents in straight sets, with a 6–0 set in each match. Henin then faced Serena Williams in the quarterfinals for the third consecutive time in a Grand Slam tournament, and for the third time, Henin won, 7–6(3), 6–1. She then went on to defeat Venus in an exciting semifinal, before winning the final against Kuznetova. Henin won the tournament without dropping a set.

At the time, MrKen posted about Serena's "clueless and classless" comments during a surly news conference in crediting Henin's win to "a lot of lucky shots", and went on to lamely blame her "other interests" for her poor showing--as if Williams was a tennis 'dilettante'.

This post, along with my retrospective look back at Henin's triumph-- "Justine Henin, the 'Class' of the Women's Game", can be found at http://mrken45sworld.blogspot.com/search?q=Justine+Henin

And for the rest of the story from the Belgian press about the rumored comeback, please follow this link: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jujpFjkJ7BcnLfw7F_skfUKgruQQ

P.S. Henin even knows how to serve without double-faulting a dozen times in a match! (See the 9/2/09 NY Times front page article (above the fold) on this embarrassment to the women's game and Billie Jean King's befuddlement on its cause or solution in her interview on the Tennis Channel.

Wikipedia on Henin: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justine_Henin

70's Disco Returns to Atlantic City!

KC & THE SUNSHINE BAND






KC & The Sunshine Band & Donna Summer are performing in in Atlantic City on 8/28 & 8/29 @ Resorts & Trump Taj Mahal!

Tickets were inexpensive; $35 KC (all seats) & also $35 (2nd tier seating-elevated) for DS--thru Ticketmaster.

MrKen has tickets for these shows, which are to me--as a lover of 70's Disco-a tremendous bargain.***

I have seen KC & the Sunshine Band perform in person and on cable TV; IMO they put on a terrific show that takes one back to the carefree, happy music of the 1970's.

The following descriptions are from Resorts--and the Trump Taj Mahal entertainment sites in Atlantic City.

KC and the Sunshine Band

It’s time to put on your “Boogie Shoes” and dance with the high energy of 70’s sensation KC & The Sunshine Band. Among KC & the Sunshine Band’s hits are “Get Down Tonight,” “That’s the Way (I Like It),” “Please Don’t Go,” and “Rock Your Baby.”

Date:
Friday August 28, 2009 - 9pm
Saturday August 29, 2009 - 8pm
Price: $35
Location: Resorts Superstar Theater

And from the official KC & The Sunshine Band Website...

KC & The Sunshine Band is still as widely popular today as they were when they first danced onto the music scene 36 years ago. Harry Wayne Casey – KC, for short – developed a unique fusion of R&B and funk, with a hint of a Latin percussion groove, giving us an impressive string of hits like Get Down Tonight, That’s The Way (I Like It) and Shake Your Booty.

Resorts also has a retro 70's & 80's dance club --"Boogie Nights"-- open Friday & Saturday evenings for a modest entrance fee. Video below...

Donna Summer Sat. August 29, 2009 Donna Summer will be performing in the Arena at Trump Taj Mahal on Sat., August 29, 2009. Show time is 8:00pm with doors opening one hour prior. Ticket prices are $75, $50 & $35. Tickets can be obtained by either calling Ticketmaster at 1-800-736-1420, on line at www.ticketmaster.com or in person at the Taj Box Office. For box office hours and more information call (609) 449-5150. Donna Summer, of course, rocketed to international superstardom in the mid-1970s when her groundbreakingmerger of R&B, soul, pop, funk, rock, disco and avant-garde electronica catapulted underground dance music out of the clubs of Europe to the pinnacles of sales and radio charts around the world. Maintaining an unbroken string of hits throughout the 70s and 80s, most of which she wrote, Donna holds the record for most consecutive double albums to hit #1 on the Billboard charts (3) and first female to have four #1 singles in a 12 month period; 3 as a solo artist and one as a duo with Barbra Streisand. A five-time Grammy winner, Donna Summer was the first artist to win the Grammy for Best Rock Vocal Performance, Female (1979, "Hot Stuff") as well as the first-ever recipient of the Grammy for Best Dance Recording (1997, "Carry On"). In 2004, she became one of the first inductees, as both an Artist Inductee and a Record Inductee (for 1977’s "I Feel Love") into the Dance Music Hall of Fame in New York City. It is estimated that Donna Summer has sold more than 130 million records worldwide. Donna Summer has been working hard on CRAYONS, her bold and long-awaited new collection of songs, the artist’s first full-length studio album of newly-penned material since 1991’s "Mistaken Identity. The album debuted at #17, making this her all-time highest debut on the US Album Chart and her highest charting album since She Works Hard For The Money reached #9 twenty-five years earlier. Some hits include: "Love to Love You Baby," "I Feel Love," "Last Dance," "MacArthur Park," "Heaven Knows," "Hot Stuff," "Bad Girls," "Dim All the Lights," "On the Radio."

http://www.heykcsb.com/

http://donnasummer.com


***Should any readers of my blog have an interest in attending these events, please contact me at the e-mail address shown in my profile (not the Yahoo IM address but the gmail address link shown above in my profile).

Bill Maher's "New Rules" - MrKen's Discussion with The Hapless Hermit

Also, a Hapless Hermit 'Scoop'--

Bill O'Reilly babbles to The Hapless Hermit-Read the exclusive interview on the Hermit's blog!

Photo and quote curtesy of "The Hapless Hermit".

Recently, my good friend, "The Hapless Hermit"-- his blog appears on my "blogroll of excellence"-- posted a Bill Maher video from a recent (7/24) "Real Time with Bill Maher" show (HBO), and noted that he "didn't hate Bill Maher so much." His complete comment was--

The Hermit Doesn't Hate Bill Maher So Much

I don't agree with everything Bill Maher says but his show is one of the few news/opinion programs that doesn't totally insult the viewer. Here is a clip where he hits the nail on the head about our healthcare system.

--Link to the video and post is contained in the title of this post.

MrKen's comment posted on the Hermit's blog was---

Hello again, Hermit!

This is where I have a slight disagreement with you, Hermit. I enthusiastically agree with virtually everything Bill Maher says on his terrific HBO show 'Real Time'. IMO, he is a sharp & well prepared interviewer. The guests are usually extraordinarily erudite and articulate (with a few exceptions e.g., John Bolton, our former U.N. Ambassador), while the debates are always lively and interesting. And Bill Maher is a great comedian! Thx for the You Tube clip; I always look forward to Bill's educational and scathing "editorial" at the end of the "New Rules" segment of the show. This past Friday-8/7, he gave numerous examples of the stupidity of this nation (18% of Americans still think the Sun revolves around the Earth!)

I had the privilege of observing him debate the rabid lunatic Ann Coulter at Radio City some months ago. You probably read the post already on my blog, but for other interested folks, here is the link--

http://mrken45sworld.blogspot.com/search?q=Bill+Maher

Another of my favorite political satirists is Jon Stewart. His 'Daily Show' http://www.thedailyshow.com/ is a 'fake news' production that contains more actual news and well researched opinion than most of the putative "real news" programs on both the networks and cable.

**********************************

Mr. Hermit later clarified that he actually agreed with 99% of what Bill Maher said and watched his show every week...so, our worldviews appear to be quite similar.

***Warning to the faint-hearted---The Hermit's blog contains some "adult" material. Those of you who have problems with the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States are forewarned.

Conundrum for Former Brooklyn Dodgers Fans

MrKen highly recommends the HBO documentary--"The Brooklyn Dodgers: The Ghosts of Flatbush".

A conundrum posed by a former Dodger player was this--

'A Dodger fan is locked in a room with Adolf Hitler, Josef Stalin, & Walter O'Malley (Dodger owner who moved the team to its new digs in Los Angeles in 1958). The fan has a revolver containing only two bullets; who does he shoot?'

Answer: 'He shoots Walter O'Malley twice!'

Some fans of "dose bums" have never forgiven O'malley--even though the real villain was Robert Moses; despite repeated entreaties, he refused to approve a parcel of land available in Brooklyn which was ideal (it was at the terminus of a LIRR line). Instead, Moses wanted O'Malley to build the stadium in Queens--the later site of Shea Stadium. So O'Malley accepted a much superior offer from LA.

MrKen hails from Philly, so was psychologically unaffected by the dispute. I hated the Dodgers, Giants (and Yankees) no matter what city they called home. Incidentally, Phillies' centerfielder Richie Ashburn's famous throw-which nailed a Dodger pinchrunner at home plate in the last game of the 1950 season- is shown on the HBO special as yet another example of Dodger futility. Had the run scored, the Dodgers would have forced a playoff with the rapidly fading "Whiz Kids". But the Phils went on to win the game in the 10th inning, securing the NL pennant. And then lost the World Series to the Yankees in 4 straight...

Brooklyn's high-flying Dodgers are the focus of this documentary that examines the heyday and impact of one of baseball's most recognizable teams from 1947 to 1957. From the watershed moment in which Jackie Robinson became the first African American to play in the major leagues, the team set a new standard for integration and became a symbol for a cohesive American culture. But just ten years later, the Dodgers left Ebbets Field behind and relocated to the West Coast, shocking a borough and forever changing the professional sports landscape. This film explores that history-making period--including the team's epic battles against their archrival Yankees--and features interviews with Rachel Robinson, Duke Snider, Carl Erskine, Clem Labine, Johnny Podres, Peter O'Malley, Larry King, Pat Cooper, Louis Gossett Jr. and many others. Produced in association with Major League Baseball Productions. Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of Major League Baseball Productions, Inc. Widescreen. (TVPG) (AL)

Description Curtesy of HBO's Sports Website:
http://www.hbo.com/apps/schedule/ScheduleServlet?ACTION_DETAIL=DETAIL&FOCUS_ID=631912

God Looks After...

"There is a Providence that protects idiots, drunkards, children, and the United States of America".--

---Otto von Bismarck, 19th Century Prussian Leader & First Chancellor of Germany (1871-1890)

Curtesy of Wikiquote.org Link: http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Otto_von_Bismarck

Global Crisis to Strike by 2030 says UK Scientist

Global crisis 'to strike by 2030'

By Christine McGourty
BBC Science Correspondent

(Opposite top right)--
Water shortages are predicted
across large parts of Africa,
Europe and Asia

Growing world population will cause a "perfect storm" of food, energy and water shortages by 2030, the UK government chief scientist is warning.

By 2030 the demand for resources will create a crisis with dire consequences, Prof John Beddington predicts.

Demand for food and energy will jump 50% by 2030 and for fresh water by 30%, as the population tops 8.3 billion, he is due to tell a conference in London.

Climate change will exacerbate matters in unpredictable ways, he will add.

'Complacent'

"It's a perfect storm," Prof Beddington will tell the Sustainable Development UK 09 conference.

"There's not going to be a complete collapse, but things will start getting really worrying if we don't tackle these problems."

“ We need more disease-resistant and pest-resistant plants and better practices, better harvesting procedures,” asserted
Professor Beddington.

Prof Beddington says the looming crisis will match the current one in the banking sector.

"My main concern is what will happen internationally, there will be food and water shortages," he predicts.

"We're relatively fortunate in the UK; there may not be shortages here, but we can expect prices of food and energy to rise."

The United Nations Environment Programme predicts widespread water shortages across Africa, Europe and Asia by 2025.

The amount of fresh water available per head of the population is expected to decline sharply in that time.

The issue of food and energy security rose high on the political agenda last year during a spike in oil and commodity prices.

Genetically-modified

Prof Beddington says the concern now - when prices have dropped once again - is that the issues will slip down the domestic and international agenda again.

"We can't afford to be complacent. Just because the high prices have dropped doesn't mean we can relax," he says.

Improving agricultural productivity globally is one way to tackle the problem, he adds.

At present, 30-40% of all crops are lost due to pest and disease before they are harvested.

Professor Beddington says: "We have to address that. We need more disease-resistant and pest-resistant plants and better practices, better harvesting procedures.

"Genetically-modified food could also be part of the solution. We need plants that are resistant to drought and salinity - a mixture of genetic modification and conventional plant breeding.

Better water storage and cleaner energy supplies are also essential, he says.

Prof Beddington is chairing a subgroup of a new Cabinet Office task force set up to tackle food security.

But he says the problem cannot be tackled in isolation.

He wants policy-makers in the European Commission to receive the same high level of scientific advice as the new US president, Barak Obama.

One solution would be to create a new post of chief science adviser to the European Commission, he suggests.

MrKen would really like to know why population control (8.3 billion of us by 2030!) is not mentioned by the professor--without which all his other suggestions are nearly worthless.

Homo Sapiens is rapidly driving all other species to extinction--except possibly for certain insects like cockroaches and vermin such as rats. The 'solutions' he talks about are at best 'stopgaps' while population growth runs amok in much of the world.

I suggest the good professor views the movie "Religulous" mentioned in my previous post. It tries to explain the lack of logic displayed by otherwise intelligent (possibly) individuals when thinking about subjects infected with religious mumbo-jumbo; e.g.,"be fruitful and multiply"--and where such thinking leads us. As Bill Maher has pointed out, why do humans ALWAYS need MORE?

When followed blindly, "faith based initiatives" lead to crises, pollution, war, starvation and eventually extinction...

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/uk_news/7951838.stm

Published: 2009/03/19 05:58:15 GMT

© BBC © MMIX

The Clash of the Titans--Coulter, Maher spar at Radio City

(Reuters )– Television personalities Ann Coulter and Bill Maher debate during the "Speaker Series: The Minds …"

Mr Ken plunked down $64.50 to attend the first of Radio City's "Speaker Series" between TV personalities Bill Maher (Real Time with Bill Maher-HBO) & Ann Coulter (author of the bestseller "Guilty") on Monday, March 9.

Mr. Maher also wrote and starred in the controversial 2008 documentary movie "Religulous", giving his take on the sad state of religion in the world today--which MrKen highly recommends!

What a treat to listen to the erudite Maher deconstruct right wing nut case Coulter's mostly nonsensical rantings with his hilarious and cutting humor!

It was occasionally chilling, however, to realize that there is a significant segment of the population out there who also do not believe in evolution, think that ghosts are real, and imagine that a personal deity watches over them--only choosing to have misfortune visited upon others (who no doubt deserve it--and are all 'lefties').

Oh yes, and some of these same know-nothings still insist that President Obama is a Muslim (as I overheard a nincompoop couple feverishly whispering next to me).

Maher is an outspoken liberal with libertarian leanings and a former stand up comic. His long running show "Politically Incorrect" was called the Best Talk Show on Television by TV Guide, and nominated for nine Emmy Awards.

Coulter is an acerbic and rabid right wing writer & lecturer who Meghan McCain, the daughter of the would be president, blogged was "offensive, radical, insulting and confusing, all at the same time". Coulter famously does not believe in evolution and labels science a form of faith!

Here are some excerpts of the debate from Yahoo News, curtesy of Politico.com

NEW YORK — Bill Maher couldn’t have asked for a better act to follow.

Maher took the stage at the Radio City Music Hall Monday after Ann Coulter – with whom he’d spend the rest of the night debating – had held forth for 15 minutes on the sins of liberals.

The applause for Maher was huge – exactly as one might expect in not-exactly-blood-red midtown Manhattan. “If we were having this debate in Springfield, Mo., it would be different,” Maher said.

But even in mostly hostile territory, Coulter was no shrinking violet. When moderate Mark Halperin brought up Meghan McCain’s swipes of Coulter on The Daily Beast from earlier in the day — the daughter of the would-be president called her “offensive, radical, insulting, and confusing all at the same time" — Coulter said it didn’t bother her.

And Coulter dealt with the occasional boos while debating with Maher over stem cell research, Iraq and of course, the 44th president – all while delivering her own blows on everyone from Timothy Geithner to Nancy Reagan. ...

“Who put two wars on a credit card?” Maher asked. “There is this debt because George Bush spent money like a pimp with a week to live.”

Maher got applause for any shots at Bush, as when he mentioned Obama’s quoting of Voltaire — “no George W. Bush, that’s not a Harry Potter character.”

He used the term “bimbo” to describe Bush, Quayle and Sarah Palin.

And Maher attacked those who consider themselves “real Americans,” by claiming that “if it wasn’t for the two coasts, this country would have been sold off to China thirty years ago.”


To read the rest of the story, please follow this link:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20090310/pl_politico/19830

And to read more about "Religulous", go here--
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religulous

DISCO Fun Facts!

PARDON OUR FRENCH

What do D-Day and disco have in common, besides the letter D? Nazis, of course! During World War II, when the Third Reich occupied Paris, jazz clubs were closed and live music of a liberal nature was strictly verboten! But Parisians couldn't live without their jazz, so they took it underground, opening illicit cellars where they could drink booze freely and listen to pre-recorded music. One such club, on Rue de la Huchette, called itself La Discothèque - coined from the French words for "record" (disque) and "library" (bibliothèque

Curtesy of Disco Fun Facts-Neatorama

http://www.neatorama.com/2009/01/16/disco-fun-facts/

Iraqi Journalist Hurls Shoes at Bush

Iraqi Journalist Hurls Shoes at Bush. Prime Minister al-Maliki tries for an interception.

MrKen Is old enough to remember the famous shoe-banging incident that took place during the 902nd Plenary Meeting of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City on 12 October 1960, when the infuriated Premier of the Soviet Union pounded his shoe on the delegate desk. But at least Nikita Khrushchev didn't throw his shoes at the speaker.

During a news conference in Baghdad on Sunday, a reporter took off his shoes and hurled them at the president, who showed off his cat-like reflexes. Bush was not hit.

The Iraqi journalist who hurled his shoes at Mr. Bush’s head denounced him on live television as a “dog” who had delivered death and sorrow here from nearly six years of war.

Hitting someone with a shoe is considered the supreme insult in Iraq. It means that the target is even lower than the shoe, which is always on the ground and dirty. Crowds hurled their shoes at the giant statue of Mr. Hussein that stood in Baghdad’s Firdos Square before helping American marines pull it down on April 9, 2003, the day the capital fell. More recently in the same square, a far bigger crowd composed of Iraqis who had opposed the security agreement flung their shoes at an effigy of Mr. Bush before burning it.

For the full New York Times story, please follow this link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/15/world/middleeast/15prexy.html?th&emc=th

To read more about the Khrushchev shoe banging incident-- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoe-banging_incident

On Gay Marriage

"Gays are the only people who actually still want to get married"--
Rabbi Shmuley Boteach on Larry King Live

It is simply breathtaking how unenlightened most of the U.S. remains on social issues eight years into the new millenium. Here is Rabbi Boteach's take on gay marriage.

"...What I will say is that religion in America has made homosexuality into a false bogeyman, which has seriously distracted religion from giving real values to an increasingly valueless society. Is this really what religious values in America has come to, opposition to gay marriage?"

"What do you think would do more to save heterosexual marriage in America? Making sure gays can't get hitched, or changing the tax code so that marital counseling among heterosexual couples becomes tax-deductible so that couples can actually afford the help they need? What should religion be devoting its energy to? Opposing gay marriage in California, or supporting an effective national campaign for school vouchers so that parents can afford to send their children to schools that teach religious values like male respect for women and the sanctity of a loving relationship?"

Read the full article in the Huffington Post here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rabbi-shmuley-boteach
/gays-as-the-new-religious_b_144339.html?page=2

Real Unemployment Rate Soars to 11.8%

As Alan Abelson points out in this week's issue of Barron's, 240,000 payroll slots went up in smoke in October, and that total would have been higher by 71,000 were it not for these mythical jobs that were "created" via the infamous birth/death model.

Abelson also notes that--

"The category that gives you a better feel for the way things really are out there on the the job front is dubbed U-6 and includes marginally attached workers, part-timers who can't find a full-time job and the officially unemployed. In October, that measure reached 11.8%, the highest since 1994, when it was designed, compared with 7.9% a year ago."

MrKen is ever so thankful that he's retired!

To read this week's Barron's magazine for free follow this link:
http://online.barrons.com/public/main

On Being a Fool

It is better to be silent and thought a fool ..., than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.

--George Bernard Shaw

The Alcoholic

"Why are you drinking?"demanded the little prince.
"So that I may forget," replied the tippler.
"Forget what?" inquired the little prince, who already was sorry for him.,
"Forget that I am ashamed," the tippler confessed, hanging his head.
"Ashamed of what?" insisted the little prince, who wanted to help him.
"Ashamed of drinking!" The tippler brought his speech to an end, and shut himself up in an impregnable silence.

Antoine de Saint-Exupery,
The Little Prince,

from 'Under the Influence', Milam & Ketcham (1981,1983)

The link in the title is to SMART Recovery.org meetings in NYC-- a scientifically based recovery program from addiction. It is most definitely NOT a 12-Step program. The home page for SMART Recovery is:
http://www.smartrecovery.org/

*Has MrKen really returned this time? We sure hope so...2008 has been a rough year thus far.

Einstein Thought God was a Childish Superstition

AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE -Albert Einstein described belief in God as "childish superstition" and said Jews were not the chosen people, in a letter, an auctioneer said.The father of relativity, whose previously known views on religion have been more ambivalent and fuelled much discussion, made the comments in response to a philosopher in 1954.

As a Jew himself, Einstein said he had a great affinity with Jewish people but said they "have no different quality for me than all other people". "The word God is for me nothing more than the expression and product of human weaknesses, the Bible a collection of honourable, but still primitive legends which are nevertheless pretty childish. "No interpretation no matter how subtle can (for me) change this," he wrote in the letter written on January 3, 1954 to the philosopher Eric Gutkind, cited by The Guardian newspaper. . .

In it, the renowned scientist, who declined an invitation to become Israel's second president, rejected the idea that the Jews are God's chosen people. "For me the Jewish religion like all others is an incarnation of the most childish superstitions," he said. "And the Jewish people to whom I gladly belong and with whose mentality I have a deep affinity have no different quality for me than all other people."And he added: "As far as my experience goes, they are no better than other human groups, although they are protected from the worst cancers by a lack of power. Otherwise I cannot see anything 'chosen' about them."

Curtesy of 'Undernews'--http://prorev.com/2008/05/einstein-thought-god-was-childish.html

--P.S. MrKen has been on an unplanned two month "sabbatical". I expect to be posting regularly once again.

Crude Oil, the Dollar & Gold -- A Disconnect

MrKen wonders when crude oil will correct and move lower. Is crude a "bubble" or not? In Friday's Wall Street Journal ((5/16/08)--"Bernanke's Bubble Laboratory"--the charts of the Nasdaq Composite (3/95-2002), Las Vegas Home Prices (8/01-2/08) & Crude Oil (6/03-present) are plotted on one graph. The chart of Oil and the Composite (which peaked in march 2000) look eerily similar. With the Fed sopping up excess liquidity recently, according to Barron's 'Up and Down Wall Street Daily' (5/16/08)by Randall Forsyth:

"The popular perception is that Bernanke has opened the floodgates. "The Fed is providing an extraordinary amount of liquidity," according to the head economist of a major bank.'

"The data, however, do not bear this out. The Fed itself actually has turned tight and growth in the money supply slowed from its breakneck pace in the past month. And, coincidentally, the dollar has pulled out of its nosedive and gold has pulled out of its ascent."

"...Specifically, the monetary base -- bank reserves plus currency, as measured by the St. Louis Fed -- contracted by 0.5% in April, according to calculations by Free Market Inc., a Chicago economic consultancy. Over the past three months, this measure of the Fed's own actions has grown at a mild 2.1% annual rate..."

--will crude oil soon follow the precious metals lower, despite bullish forecasts by Goldman, Sachs & UBS?

Kopin Tan writes in his column in this week's Barron's (5/19/08) "In Stocks, Summer Nonchalance Arrives Early"--

'...CRUDE OIL'S price tag isn't the only thing that's the subject of buzz; some of its recent relationships are also much talked about.'

'Take crude oil and gold, which have moved in lockstep over much of the past two years. Since mid-March, however, gold has pulled back more than 10%, partly as traders unwind their flight-to-safety trades while the credit crisis recedes. In contrast, oil has continued to climb, tacking on another 20% to an already impressive rally as the two commodities grow ever further apart.'

'Something unusual, too, is happening between crude oil and the dollar. These two have tended to move in opposite directions, and the dollar's weakening had in fact helped drive oil higher. Yet both have rallied over the past month.'

'If we expect these relationships to revert to their typical behavior, then crude's straying from the norm with both gold and the dollar suggests it may be well the errant one.'

'That has been true in the recent past. Bespoke Investment Group found just three instances since 1986 when oil has rallied 10% or more over a two-month period while gold fell by double-digit percentages. In the two months following such divergences, oil has declined two out of the three times to register an average loss of 22.5%. Gold, on the other hand, has rallied each time to post an average gain of 5.9%.'

'Exorbitant oil prices curb consumption and act as their own check, and few will be surprised if oil takes a breather after soaring nearly 150% over the past 16 months...'

Curtesy of Barron's -http://online.barrons.com/public/main?mod=topnav
& http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121094212709898613.html?mod=rss_
barrons_up_and_down_wall_street_daily&page=2

The Internet as a Garbage Dump

The Wall Street Journal's weekend edition (3/15-3/16/08) noted the passing of Joseph Weizenbaum, 1923-2008, in its Remembrances column. Some excerpts from writer Stephen Miller--

'As author of a computer program called Eliza that was designed to simulate a psychiatrist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Joseph Weizenbaum created a beguiling artifact of early computing. But after test subjects told him the program really empathized with their problems, Mr. Weizenbaum became a digital Jeremiah, and spent decades preaching the computer apocalypse.'

'The program was in effect a form of a Turing test, named for the computer scientist Alan Turing. In 1950, Turing predicted computers would soon be invented that would appear to think, and said a test of that development would be whether a person could distinguish a computer's dialogue from a human's.'

'...He soon soured on computers and condemned automated decision making as antihuman. In a lighter moment he called them "a solution looking for a problem".'

...'Even the rise of the Internet, with its seemingly boundless possibilities for communication, failed to impress Mr. Weizenbaum.'

"The Internet is like one of those garbage dumps outside of Bombay," he told the New York Times in 1999..."There are people, most unfortunately, crawling all over it, and maybe they find a bit of aluminum, or perhaps something they can sell. But mainly it's garbage."

MrKen has to agree that this observation is right on the money. Much of what is described by some as "opinion" posted on the Internet by the unwashed masses is just simplistic, uninformed nonsense. Unfortunately, these rants greatly outweigh in volume the articles and research posted by professional writers.

But these inane rants and scribblings would certainly not pass the Turing test!

To visit the Wall Street Journal Online, follow this link: http://online.wsj.com/public/us

Quantum's Jim Rogers says US 'out of control'

The case for commodity stocks has been forcefully, and in my opinion, quite correctly expressed by Jim Rogers, co-founder of the Quantum Fund. While sharp corrections are possible at any time, Rogers is taking a longer term view.

Especially alarming is his thesis of armed conflict over resources. But of course we have already experienced this; the U.S. invaded Iraq to secure the desperately needed oil resources of the region. To the conservative neocons** out there who insist that we selflessly sought to bring democracy to Iraq--well, Karl Rove appeared on Fox News on Sunday (3/2) as an analyst to point out that the U.S. could not allow Al-Qaeda to build up a base in Iraq because it would endanger our oil supply.

**The Wall Street Journal, for example, has written many silly, disingenuous editorials about this county's putative motives for invading Iraq; e.g., the invasion was not about oil but only about the fact that Saddam Hussein was a 'bad, bad man & killed many of his own people' & the U.S. is so selfless and pure that it was a moral imperative for our 'Dear Leader' to send its imperial armed forces to Iraq in order to topple him. As if siding with dictators with blood on their hands ever bothered Amerika; re Stalin, Batista, Franco, Shah Pahlavi of Iran. Not to mention supporting Saddam against Iran in the almost decade-long war in the 1980's and selling him much of the chemical weapons technology he later used to kill his own people (along with France & other European countries).

Memories tend to be quite short in the U.S.A.--as short as attention spans...

From the London Times Online (2/28/08):

Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent

Jim Rogers - who co-founded the now closed Quantum Fund with George Soros - told 750 global fund managers in Tokyo today that, America is “completely out of control”, there will be a 20-year bull market in commodities and that prices will be in turmoil.

And he also warned that it “made sense” if global competition for resources ended in armed conflict.

Mr Rogers told delegates to the CLSA investment forum that the prices of all agricultural products would “explode” in coming years and that the price of gold, which hit an all-time high of $964 an ounce yesterday, will continue its surge to as much as $3,500 an ounce.

Gold would continue to rise, the analyst Christopher Wood told fund managers, “because it is the exact opposite of a structured finance product”.

In a blistering attack on US monetary policy and the “helicopter cash drop” responses of the Federal Reserve, Mr Rogers described the American dollar as a “terribly flawed currency”.

He said that the plan by Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chairman, to “crank up the money-printing machines and run them until we run out of trees” had exposed America’s weakest point to her rivals and enemies.

The dollar may have declined recently, he added, “but you ain’t seen nothing yet”.

Talking to a room almost exclusively populated with Japan-focused equity investors, Mr Rogers recommended an immediate language course in Mandarin and a switch into commodities — the second-biggest market in the world behind foreign exchange.

Mr Rogers said that historic drains on wheat, corn and other soft commodity inventories have created market dynamics that could lead to severe food shortages.

The outlook over the next two decades would see prices of everything from cotton and sugar to lead and nickel “going through the roof”.

Heavily playing down the prospects of a big recovery in Japan, Mr Rogers said that the country’s demographics — as the fastest-aging country in the world — would cause it greater problems and an ever-diminishing quality of life for ordinary Japanese.

But he also said that other countries — including Britain, Italy, China and the US — should take note of what their own demographics would look like without the effect of immigration.

“Japan will be the perfect laboratory for the world to watch how a demographic crisis plays out,” he said.

Stock Picks for this Major Bear Market

MrKen has recently returned to trading stocks, as he has recently retired (62) and now has the free time to study and trade the market. Happily, I am showing @ a 15% profit for the January/February period in a most challenging investment environment. Here are the 3 long positions I currently have:

Coeur d’Alene Mines Corporation (NYSE:CDE) -- silver, gold, lead & zinc
Hecla Mining Company (NYSE: HL) -- silver, gold, lead & zinc
Stillwater Mining Company (NYSE: SWC) -- palladium, platinum & other metals

Almost all of the profit has been from HL; SWC was only purchased on 2/29. CDE has risen modestly in the Jan/Feb period.

*****************************************************************
My short pick is: (but do not have an actual position at present)

Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) -- financial products & services

*****************************************************************

The rationale for these positions are both technical & fundamental:

TECHNICAL: The long positions have very high relative strength rankings (RS) as indicated in IBD (Investors Business Daily). The short pick has an extremely weak RS ranking. As discovered years ago by Edward O. Thorp (The Relative Strength Concept of Common Stock Forecasting--now out of print), stocks that are sharply above their 200-day moving average (MA) tend to outperform other stocks that have weaker rankings, with the converse being true for issues sharply below their 200 day MA.

FUNDAMENTAL: Silver, gold, platinum & palladium are soaring due partially to the decline in the dollar to record lows against the euro, yen & basket of 16 currences--and partially to favorable demand-supply considerations.

The greenback's slide is being caused mainly by the weak U.S. economy and the Fed's decision to "reflate" (print lots & lots of money) in order to avoid a sharp economic contraction (the dreaded 'R' word).- {More on this in a later post}-

Silver is beginning to outperform gold and most likely will actually benefit from the recently announced contemplated sales of gold by the IMF. Silver may be thought of as the "poor man's gold". Platinum, palladium & rhodium are also benefiting from power outages in South Africa (78% of world platinum productioncomes from South Africa) due to electrical infrastructure problems. These are not expected to be rectified until 2012!

And now on to my specific picks:

In 2007, Hecla Mining produced 5.6 million ounces of silver at an average total cash cost of negative $2.81 per ounce, after by-product credits. The company also has significant tax credits at its disposal.

Coeur d’Alene Mines had 2007 cash costs of $3.97 per ounce of silver. Coeur has no silver or gold production hedged.

Stillwater Mining- The precious-metals miner reported a $14 million loss for 2007 on essentially flat revenue and experienced labor problems. But 'The Motley Fool' notes that--

"How many of the companies you own have roughly doubled in 2008? None? You must not be on board the Stillwater Mining (NYSE: SWC) express. Homegrown Stillwater, which is going into 2008 with a minimal amount of hedges remaining on its platinum output. Although the company is predicting a roughly 10% rise in per-ounce cash costs, its margins ought to be magnificent."

Citigroup Inc. - Commodities, with their transparent pricing and liquidity, are the exact opposite of the toxic products that Citigroup and its ilk have produced. CDO's, sub-prime mortgages & tens of millions in trading losses are what you get if you try to 'bottom fish' this dog. OPCO analyst Meredith Whitney, who correctly predicted a cut in Citigroup's dividend back in October, last week indicated that C could fall to 16 or lower on more writeoffs. A great short!

Disclaimer:

All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendations to invest, trade and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions and/or forecasts expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.

MrKen is NOT a registered Investment Advisor & therefore NONE of the above discussion should be taken as investment advice. It is the writer's personal opinion ONLY, except where specific cites from financial publications & professional analysts are given.

As indicated above, MrKen at the time of this posting has long positions in CDE, HL & SWC.

Stock Market 'Pennant' Formation to Resolve Soon?

Here is some detailed technical analysis of the DJIA and its 'pennant formation', curtesy of Forex Capital markets, which appeared on the Yahoo Finance site on 2/25/08:

pennant

In technical analysis, refers to a chart pattern occurring when the trading range formed by successive highs and lows narrows over time.

Equities – Dow Jones Industrial Average

US equity markets have been in a downward trend since October as deteriorating economic data leads fears of a recession to build. Upcoming news could weigh on stocks, as housing sales and prices are forecasted to tumble while consumer confidence is anticipated to plunge, which does not bode well for the domestic economy as consumer spending represents approximately 70 percent of GDP. Meanwhile, a daily chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows price consolidating within a pennant formation, and given the sharp declines that preceded the recent moves, a bearish breakout is likely. However, if price holds above near-term support at 12,300 and manages to find a bid tone to break above 12,500, the index may target trendline resistance at 12,660.

Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Analyst, Forex Capital Markets LLC, DailyFX.com

Tell us what you think about this article. Email tbelkas@dailyfx.com

Curtesy of http://biz.yahoo.com/fxcm/
080225/1203952532617.html?.v=1
*********************************************







And Barron's column "Streetwise" (2/25/08), by Michael Santoli, has some interesting observations on the tediously narrow range that has held the stock market captive this month---

"...As a sharp trader friend likes to say, "When nobody know what's going on, people turn to market technicals..."

"...it seems most everyone is turning in their spreadsheets for some charts, with talk of the Dow's "triangle" or "wedge" or "pennant" pattern all too common."

"To translate, this talk basically means that the Dow coiled itself into a tightening band. And the sages helpfully tell us that the pattern tends to be resolved by the index breaking hard--one way or the other. So, let's get this straight: Often, after a period when nothing much happens, something happens."

"If professional investors are bored, then individuals are...fleeing equities...investors have pulled nearly $60 billion from stock mutual funds this year, while adding more than $70 billion to money-market funds and small CDs..."

But "corporate insiders have been on a selling strike for nearly two months. The dollar-based ratio of insider sales to buys has been in the bullish zone pretty much all year...and down 90% from a year ago."

Robin Carpenter of www.CarpenterAnalytix.com is quoted in Santoli's column as saying--

"For what it's worth, my own expectation is that we are close {in time} to an upturn of some consequence, but that the market needs one more down-thrust of some energy."

To view this week's Barron's for free, go to http://online.barrons.com/this_week

Bear Market in Stocks Turns Vicious

Wall Street extended its 2008 plunge Thursday (1/17), sending the Dow Jones industrials down 306 points and to their lowest level since last March after a regional Federal Reserve report showed a sharp and unexpected decline in manufacturing activity. -- Yahoo Finance

Back on Dec. 24, I commented on some bullish sentiment readings on the stock market, as reported in Barron's Financial Weekly. These had occurred shortly after the Dow Theory major bear market signal given on November 21 (which I discussed on Dec. 4 & 18), when the Industrials closed at a new low. Indeed, a short-lived bounce occurred.

But the current bear market quickly has resumed -- and turned vicious, as bear markets are wont to do--with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index also piercing its August low. In addition, all the averages are now well below their 200-day moving averages.

MrKen is very bearish on the markets himself & will begin trading within the next 10 days. I have been reviewing potential candidates for selling short--the only possible long positions I like are some of the gold & silver mining stocks**...Stocks almost always fall faster than they rise & MrKen is a pessimist at heart, anyway. :>)

Some comments on the dire state of the equity markets follow from Barron's (The Trader, by Kopin Tan 1/14/08)

"...Might Tuesday's (1/8) low--the S & P finished at 1390 that day--form a meaningful shrt-term bottom? The AAII survey showed a flash of panic, with the percentage of bears reaching 59%, the highest reading since 1990. But the VIX forecast as measured by the VIX volatility index had pushed to just 26--well below August's 37. At the International Securities Exchange, investors bought just 0.72 calls for every put--more fearful than the recent average near 1.16, but still more complacent than the 0.51 low registered before August's rebound."

"Andrew Burkly, Brown Brothers Harriman's market strategist, isn't entirely ready to buy this low, partly because the market's long term upward trend may be changing. 'If the market has transitioned to a primary downtrend, oversold signals need to be deeper to be significant,' he notes."

"Burkley says measures like selling intensity, price momentum and investor sentiment are moving toward extremes, but most are still less extreme than levels seen last August. 'A deeper oversold condition is necessary to indicate that the risk/reward balance for equities has turned favorable.'

To view this week's Barron's for free, follow this link:
http://online.barrons.com/this_week

Disclaimer:

All ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts, expressed or implied, are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendations to invest, trade and/or speculate in the markets. Any investments, trades and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions and/or forecasts expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.

MrKen is NOT a registered Investment Advisor & NONE of the above discussion should be taken as investment advice. It is the writer's personal opinion ONLY, except where specific cites from financial publications are given.

MrKen has no market positions at the time of this post.

** Specific ideas will appear soon...

Huckabee Hunts for Pakistani Terrorists in Iowa

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, the GOP's 'Christian' candidate, is a rube as clueless as they come (except for 'W' of course). Barron's Alan Abelson hilariously satirized this political parvenu* in his 'Up & Down Wall Street' column of Jan. 7, 2008--

"The geographically challenged Mr. Huckabee, whose strongest card seems to be his amiability, demonstrated to the apparent satisfaction of the state's Republicans that he was a regular guy by donning some hunting gear and shooting at flocks of quizzical birds. But, in fact, our Iowa sources tell us, he was really after bigger game: He was keen on picking off some Pakistani terrorists who, he implied, have been sneaking into Iowa by the thousands to do their mischief."

"For Mr. Huckabee seems to have confused Pakistan with Mexico in terms of their respective locations and also seems to believe that Iowa borders on Mexico/Pakistan. We must admit we never did a thorough survey of the state in the considerable time we spent in such places as Red Oak and Iowa City. So it could be he's discovered a hitherto unknown sliver of the state (that) snakes its way undetected to the nations southern border. We're quite eager to see what comparable revelations Mr. Huckabee's journeys through New Hampshire yield."

*parvenu - A person who has suddenly risen above his social and economic class without the background or qualifications for his new status.

Hahahahahaha...Alan Abelson's column alone is worth the price of a Barron's subscription. :>) MrKen has been reading his gems for almost 40 years.

To get a free look at this week's Barron's, follow this link: (but you will have to subscribe or purchase a newstand copy ($5.00) to read Abelson's complete "Up & Down Wall Street" column.

http://online.barrons.com/public/main?mod=topnav